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Everything But The US Stock Market Has Already Peaked
The new Z.1 report came out today so let’s update many of the indicators I’ve been sharing here over the past few months. What should be worrisome to market watchers here is that we now have a host of...
View ArticleMy Favorite Investment Idea Since Apple
$HLF is my best long idea here. Not for a trade but for buy-and-hold. — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 18, 2014 I’m in the process of creating a premium version of “The Felder Report” that...
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By Some Measures This Is The Most Overvalued Stock Market Of All Time
Not so long ago I wrote, “this is probably the second worst time to own stocks in history.” However, when you look at the market a bit differently you can make the case that this could be THE worst...
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Why Today’s Ultra-Low Interest Rates Are Actually Bearish For Stocks
There are plenty of pundits out there arguing that today’s record-high valuations in the stock market are validated by ultra-low interest rates (see Fed Model). The problem with this idea is it really...
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Don’t Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000
As the Nasdaq approaches its 2000 highs people are talking about the similarities and the differences between the market then and now. Most seem to be focusing on the differences, on how much more...
View ArticleWhy The Smart Money Is Beginning To Worry About The Downside
A month or so ago, I was struck by Ray Dalio’s comments at Davos. He seemed fairly concerned and the major media outlets didn’t really pick it up. “It’s the end of the supercycle. It’s the end of the...
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Don’t Be Seduced By The Siren Song Of The Stock Market
I recently wrote that, “the single greatest mistake investors make is to extrapolate recent history out into the future.” As an example of how dangerous this natural tendency is, I shared a bit of...
View ArticlePlaying Defense In The Stock Market Right Now Doesn’t Make You An Idiot
I’ve taken some flak recently for my persistently bearish views of the stock market over the past year. Rightfully so. I’ve been dead wrong. And with a record level of bulls it should come as no...
View ArticleWhy A Stock Market Crash May Once Again Be Inevitable
Don’t confuse brains with a bull market. -Humphrey B. Neill Spending as much time as I do on social media, namely Twitter and StockTwits, I’ve been absolutely astounded by how many traders have begun...
View ArticleWhy It’s So Important For A Stock Operator To ‘Know Thyself’
“A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself.” -Jesse Livermore Over the weekend I came across a brief interview with Bill Gross published in the New York Times, in which he...
View ArticleLike Clockwork They’re Bashing Buffett Again
Once again, it’s becoming popular for the media to bash Warren Buffett’s lackluster performance. "Buffett's bad year" pic.twitter.com/zbORDtDnNM — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) December 1, 2015 If you’ve...
View Article5 Different Technical Tools For Traders In One Chart
Last fall I wrote a post titled, “This Is Now The Worst Possible Environment For Stock Market Investors.” My point then was that stocks were very expensive, sentiment was exuberant...
View ArticleIs It Time To Buy Stocks? Not If You’re A Long-Term Investor
The stock market is off to its worst start in history this year. Not only that, the losses over the past few weeks have come amid one of the most...
View Article2 Questions To Ask Yourself If You’re Worried About Your Investments Right Now
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” -Benjamin Graham, The...
View ArticleWhy Comparing Dividend Yields To Interest Rates Is A Dumb Idea
I’m hearing a lot of folks these days draw attention to the fact that the dividend yield on the S&P 500 (2.17%) is now greater than the yield on the...
View ArticleRobo-Advisors Are Desperately Clinging To A Dangerous Dogma
I’ve recently argued that the success of passive investing potentially sows the seeds of its own demise. Patrick O’Shaughnessy also made a similar point recently and probably a bit more eloquently....
View ArticleThis Indicator Is Still Flashing A Bear Market Warning
The NYSE just released the margin debt numbers for March and, considering the rally in stocks we’ve seen, it wasn’t much of an uptick. In fact, the nominal level of...
View ArticleUsing The ‘Fed Model’ To Buy Stocks Has Never Been More Dangerous
Many investors are pointing to low interest rates today as a way to justify soaring equity valuations. Certainly, investors have felt the need to go out on the risk curve...
View ArticleUtilities Stocks Just Did Something That Should Only Happen Once In 1,200 Years
I haven’t written much recently about the soaring valuations in stocks but my friend, JP, shared this chart earlier this week and it had me asking myself once again, “If...
View ArticleIs Apple’s Stock Cheap? Not To My Eyes
Apple reported earnings this week and the latest numbers have some some pounding the table bullish. For example, here’s Forbes from an article titled “Why Apple Is Very Undervalued“: Apple...
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